A Shift in Macroeconomics?

From the onset of the pandemic, there has been a widespread acceptance among economists and governments that to protect households and firms and boost demand in response to the Covid-19 crisis, governments must temporarily accept a large increase in public debt.

The OECD argues that in case the recovery lacks vigor, it might be necessary to continue expansionary fiscal policy for a sustained period to stimulate broader household consumption and business investment. This willingness to increase government spending, with government debt reaching up to 89.8% of GDP in the EU in Q3 2020 (up from 79.3%…

2020 in a Nutshell

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections show, it is expected that the global economy shrunk significantly in 2020 with an estimated 4.4% negative GDP growth rate. The EU economy was not an exception as the economic activity almost halted and the real GDP fell at double-digit rates in the first half of 2020 and it is predicted to close 2020 with 7.4% negative real GDP growth as the recent European Commission forecasts show. The employment has also suffered from a continuous drop in economic activity with the unemployment rate in the EU set to hit…

Karolina Zubel | CASE Economist

A Renovation Wave for Europe — Greening our buildings, creating jobs, improving lives’ (COM(2020)662) is new strategy aimed at doubling the renovation rate of existing building stock across the European Union (EU) in the next decade that was announced earlier (October 14th) this year. By improving energy efficiency refurbishments and installation of zero-emission heat sources, as well as ‘smart home’ technologies and appliances, the Renovation Wave strategy is to be one of the ways for the EU Member States (MS) to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 in accordance with the broader European Green Deal objectives.

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The article is based on a study prepared by CASE — Center for Social and Economic Research and European Academy Berlin within the project entitled ‘Norma praworządności i jej oddziaływanie społeczne jako czynniki rozwoju gospodarczego Analiza porównawcza Niemiec i Polski’/‘Das Prinzip der Rechtsstaatlichkeit und ihre soziale Wirkung als Determinante des ökonomischen Wachstums Eine vergleichende Analyse Deutschlands und Polens’ (№2018–26).

The rule of law is, as a matter of course, a sine qua non for a modern democratic society. It is also a necessary condition for existence of a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. The connection between the rule of…

Adam Śmietanka | CASE Economist

The topic of the VAT compliance has gained a particular significance in the recent years in Poland. It has become a part of a recurrent, heated political debate and has been often used instrumentally by politicians and experts alike. However, a growing interest in the forgone VAT revenues is not just limited to Poland. Thus, as the estimation techniques and underlying data on VAT components have been improving, Poland and many other countries in the EU have seized the opportunity to scrutinise national VAT Gaps and estimate their size using various techniques.

This article discusses…

Sierž Naŭrodski | President, CASE Belarus

Aleś Alachnovič | Vice-President, CASE Belarus

The presidential elections that took place in Belarus on August 9th, 2020 were incontestably the most controversial ones in the modern history of the country. Jailing and banning key election rivals, lack of transparency, and multiple recorded falsifications during the votes counting (the incumbent Alexander Lukashenka claimed an improbable 80% of the vote[1]) predictably angered the Belarusian people. As excessive and unlawful use of force against peaceful demonstrators after the election results were announced only added fuel to the fire. Since then, Belarusian citizens have mobilised on an…

Kateryna Karunska | CASE Economist

The recent decades of globalisation and ever-growing international trade resulted in unprecedented integration and interdependency of the local and global production networks. Specifically, with trade in intermediate goods and services accounting for about 70% of total international trade, Global Value Chains (GVCs) play a crucial role in global growth and ‘catching-up’ process of developing countries. Yet, while GVCs provide many opportunities for companies and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in particular, they remain highly concentrated and largely embedded within multinational enterprises which account for more than 30% of the global production. While beneficial at normal…

Izabela Styczyńska | President of CASE Management Board

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic disrupted rapidly and significantly the world economies. The lockdown measures implemented to limit the spread of the virus have, in turn, affected the world labour markets. As a result, millions of people were left with no jobs, reduced or lost income, and insecurity about future job prospects, salaries, and working conditions.

Preliminary estimates of the International Labour Organization (ILO) suggest that the global workforce loss is around 200 million workers. The European Commission (EC) Spring 2020 Economic Forecasts estimate the shift in the EU-wide unemployment rate up to…